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Sambhar Mafia - Cooked To Kill!

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Chennai goes to the polls

When everyone can become a psephologist, why should I be left behind? Here is my prediction for the 14 Assembly constituencies in Chennai:

DMK: 10 – 11 seats
ADMK: 3 – 4 seats

Sure shot win for DMK alliance: Chepauk, Thousand Lights & Anna Nagar. DMK also has a high likelihood of victory in T. Nagar, Egmore, Triplicane & Harbour constituencies.

ADMK alliance should fancy its chances in Mylapore, Royapuram, Saidapet and/or R K Nagar. Other constituencies not listed above: Park Town, Perambur and Purasawalkam.

Eventhough ADMK came to power last time, DMK managed to win 7 seats in Chennai. My hunch is that DMK will improve on that and end up with a minimum of 10 seats this time. It is often said that Chennai is DMK's fort and it looks like DMK would be able to retain that tag.

Do let me know whether you agree with the above assessment.

24 Comments:

  • We dont know the impact of Lokparitrana and Vijaykant on DMK. Bcz most of the educated ppl who normally vote for dmk in chennai seems to vote for Lokparitrana this time.
    --
    jagan

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:49 PM  

  • Aha, kaps, et tu ? :-)

    I agree. But nothing can be ruled out...

    By Blogger RaajK, at 7:03 PM  

  • Think your predictions might come true. DMK does very well in the cities, especially in Chennai. I think Lok Paritran and DMDK will have minimal impact.

    By Anonymous Vijay Krishna, at 7:15 PM  

  • Could we foretell which of the parties would do better for the 'enamoured yet benighted ' masses in terms of providing jobs,water and other amenities ? When the poll predictions are seen against this backdrop we have a healthy reason to secretly hope for the favoured party to emerge triumphant.

    By Anonymous Anand Srini, at 7:16 PM  

  • On Saidapet..

    The PMK candidate will easily win, because,

    1. The AIADMK candidate is a complete wrong choice. It should have been Saidai Duraiswamy.

    2. The PMK pannadais are working well in the industrial belt of Ekkattuthangal, Ambal Magar and Guindy.

    3. Money is playing a good part here and DMK has opened their purse strings well enough

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:17 PM  

  • hey what bout villivakam constituency which i think,is the biggest constituency in the entire state

    By Blogger Paurna, at 8:10 PM  

  • I guess You left out Tambaram. It will go DMK too, based on my information, Brahmins vote in nanganallu, madipakkam,velachery, tiruvanmiyur belt is very crucial and in all possibility they are going anti-jaya. Because of this DMK benefits. I would not be surprised if this goes to BJP.

    By Blogger Surya, at 8:58 PM  

  • My take. ADMK - 6. DMK - 8. ADMK wins in Tambaram, Saidapet, T.Nagar, Royapuram, RK Nagar & Purasawakkam. Mylapore unfortunately might go to napoleon. karunanidhi is gonna have a scare. so is the triplicane candidate.

    By Blogger anantha, at 9:57 PM  

  • @Jagan,
    I don't think Lokparitran can make an impact. They might not have had enuf time to popularize their symbol.

    @RaajK,
    i don't want to miss out on the fun

    @VK,
    yeah, Lok paritran and dmdk would find it difficult to make an impact

    @Anand Srini,
    do u seriously believe that these parties would do good to the downtrodden?

    @Anon,
    thanks for the comment, i didn't know much about the ADMK candidate in Saidapet. I just know that ADMK won the bye-election last time.

    @Paurna,
    Villivakkam is part of the 14 constituencies falling under Chennai.

    @Surya,
    Tambaram is part of Chengalpattu. Raja has a faint chance in Alandur (comprising Nanganallur, madipakkam, velachery).

    @Anantha,
    Do u think Badar Sayeed can win in Triplicane? I still believe that T Nagar wud go to DMK. As mentioned earlier, Tambaram is not counted as part of the 14 seats in Chennai.

    By Blogger Kaps, at 10:10 PM  

  • Voter Sceptism seems to reign supreme in Chennai.I guess the polling was pathetic 40-50% in the last three elections

    I see no change in the voter apathy/indifference this time too
    So it might come down to successful mobilisation by the parties during the day of voting

    It will be a tough fight in all the 14 Chennai Seats /4 suburban seats-Villivakkam/Alandur/Thiruvottiyur/Tambaram(together constituting the 3 parliament seats)

    I guess ADMK/MDMK combine will do well in Royapram/RK Nagar/Perambur/Thiruvottiyur/Tambaram/ParkTown/Saidapet/Mylapore/Alandur

    DMK combine will defintely win in Chepauk/Thousand Lights/Harbour/Egmore/Anna Nagar/T.Nagar/Triplicane/Puruswalkam

    Villivakam-both candidates are disasters.Kallan and Goonda Ranganathan.no choices really

    If BJP candidates H.Raja(Alandur)/Chandralekha(Mylapore)/H.V Hande(Anna Nagar) do well -meaning get any more than 5% votes-ADMK alliance will be in trouble

    I think this election might shatter slightly challenge the myth that Chennai is a DMK stronghold

    DMK 9 TO 12
    ADMK 6 TO 8

    By Blogger Prasanna, at 10:22 PM  

  • if the tsunami and the flood factor is going to work for JJ, then it might be neck to neck. But it will be close as the vote bank is kind of diluted with real good faces like vijaykant. But overall I think DMK would lead the show in Chennai but the margins would be very minimal. And also factors like vaiko,sharath kumar,PMK is going to be a little important if not of a huge importance

    By Blogger Suguna Purushothaman, at 10:49 PM  

  • I think the elections will throw some surprises in chennai.. The local gardens, piped water supply + veeranam, better law & order and general economic benefits due to India's growth have won many friends for Jaya in Chennai. Still difficult to understand its effect. My guess is that it Chennai will still remain DMK bastion only because all the bigwigs of DMK have thrown their hat in Chennai. Your fig is still credible

    By Blogger avinayan, at 11:53 PM  

  • Haven't got a clue about politics, but just thought I shall pop by say hello and scream across that I am back :D

    By Blogger WA, at 1:06 AM  

  • Thanks for the correction.
    But i guess Velachery comes under Tambaram. But its strange..i hope they realign this consituency soon and just have one for TVM/Velachery.

    By Blogger Surya, at 2:29 AM  

  • Am for 49 O !!

    By Anonymous PRABHU, at 3:19 AM  

  • i guess it ll be a closely fought contest.MY bet too is on DMK

    By Blogger Prasanna, at 12:03 PM  

  • Educated people voting for DMK? Hello Anon.!! Educated and DMK? What a combo??

    I with parties like Lok Pavitran..create an impact in TN. IMHO..TN politics is at its all time Low..!! The parties have decided to rob the state in Broad daylight.!!

    Its time TN wakes up.!!


    That said..Kaps..I think your predictions are right on the dot.!

    By Blogger Narayanan Venkitu, at 1:41 PM  

  • y not Vijayakanth come in and do something useful???

    By Anonymous bubbly chennai, at 2:49 PM  

  • Saidapet should easily belong to DMK coalition.

    By Blogger Boston Bala, at 9:10 PM  

  • Tambram comes under Kanchipuram not chengelpet.

    Anonymous Coward

    By Anonymous Anonymous Coward, at 3:34 AM  

  • I sincerely hope DMK does not win. If it does, the existing stranglehold by SCV on cable will worsen and we might again have water lorries running all over the streets of Chennai instead of the water flowing into our sumps which Amma managed to bring about.

    By Blogger redrajesh, at 10:12 AM  

  • Lok paritran guyz are making fool of themselves...they dont know abc of politics and will never make it big...no use for voting for them..

    there is no use for voting for DMK bcos they wont get absolute majority as they are contesting for 129 seats only.. congress and PMK will blackmail them..

    so ADMK shld lead the next gov..

    vijaykanth will be a surprise factor..i dont thin k he will get much seats but i am eager how much percentage of votes does his par gets..if he gets anywhere around 10..mark my words...10 yrs from now..he will rule TN

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:04 PM  

  • DMK will get all 14 seats in Chennai.

    Telepathy has been working strong now...

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:55 AM  

  • DMK will loose seats in Chennai.

    On the other hand, they will have a complete sweep in the southern regions, so far a ADMK stronghold

    By Blogger Doctor Bruno, at 11:51 AM  

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