Exit Poll Build-up
A scene from IBN Live where Vidya Shankar Aiyar is posing questions to Chennai Correspondent Vivian Mathew (rough transcript of the proceedings):
Vidya Shankar Aiyar: We understand that the voter turnout is likely to be around 65%. Since this is higher than the usual turnout, who is this likely to benefit?
Vivian Mathew: That’s a million dollar question Vidya. There are divergent views on who the beneficiary will be. We need to wait till 9.30 pm tonight to see the results of the CNN-IBN - Hindu exit poll.
I know they wan’t to create hype for their exit poll show. But it becomes irritating if they start emphasizing the same thing in each and every statement. Instead of saying I don’t know, Vivian Mathew gave a long-winded answer to drive people to the special program devoted to exit polls.
Vidya Shankar Aiyar: We understand that the voter turnout is likely to be around 65%. Since this is higher than the usual turnout, who is this likely to benefit?
Vivian Mathew: That’s a million dollar question Vidya. There are divergent views on who the beneficiary will be. We need to wait till 9.30 pm tonight to see the results of the CNN-IBN - Hindu exit poll.
I know they wan’t to create hype for their exit poll show. But it becomes irritating if they start emphasizing the same thing in each and every statement. Instead of saying I don’t know, Vivian Mathew gave a long-winded answer to drive people to the special program devoted to exit polls.
For those who don’t want to wait till 9.30pm IST, go ahead and read the outcome of other exit polls. Star News – AC Nielsen exit poll predicts that the DMK combine will end up with a tally of 175 seats. IMHO, the final tally for the DMK alliance is likely to be between 160 and 190. Their fancy poll promises might have just done the trick.
Update #1: Rajdeep Sardesai hints that the exit poll outcome is going to be a total reversal of what was predicted in the pre-poll survey (They had declared that ADMK has a marginal lead and it was too close to call).
Update #2: CNN-IBN - Hindu exit poll predicts that the DMK combine will bag between 157 & 167 seats. ADMK alliance is likely get 64 to 74 seats.
posted by Kaps at
9:58 PM
9 Comments:
This is not the fancy trick....
People want a change.... DMK won 40 out of 40 in the 2004 election.....
By
Doctor Bruno, at 10:23 PM
The Star TV poll is wrong... DMK will get 210 - 215 seats......
By
Doctor Bruno, at 10:26 PM
Dr.Bruno - So what's this free things all about.? Isn't it fancy?
TV"s, free gold blah..blah..blah.
And so what if DMK won 40/40 in 2004?
NOt sure how you came with with 'STAR TV poll is wrong'?
By
Narayanan Venkitu, at 10:33 PM
It could very well be DMK winning this election. But it doesnt make any difference to the common man....same old "gotalas", mud slinging, etc etc.
By
Madhu, at 12:09 AM
How come that the opinion polls in this country have an average of +/- 50% margins of errors?
Most polls predicted 250(Zee)-300(India Today) seats for the NDA in 2004, but the outcome was shockingly different(<150). I can understand if you are off by 2-3 %. But Indian opinion polls are way off.
US opinion polls for Bush-Kerry elections were off by 2.5%.
Maybe Indians have a very poor methodology and they do not dissect the different stratas of the society when seeking opinion?
Until this issue is addressed I think we should stop trusting these pre and exit polls.
Maybe, for time-pass we should talk about how much the margin of error is going to be. I think it will be 40%. Which is laughable.
By
Anonymous, at 12:34 AM
It has been proved that exit poll survey is more accurate than pre poll survey.Pre poll survey doesn't consider the undecided voters. In cases where the undecided voters are more than 5% can prove pre poll survey is wrong if they decided to vote in favour of the losing party.
By
Anonymous, at 2:59 PM
Here is a better picture on the 'poll' from another source "First this was not an exit poll at all - it was basically an entry poll. Atleast this is what happened in Mylapore and THE HINDU didn't have the guts to admit it. The sheets which were so sub-standard were given to the voters who were entering in the polling station. And to the shock of many voters, they didn't find Chandralekha's name in the sheet and only the AIADMK and DMK contestants with a couple of other contestants.
HINDU CNN and IBN - don't you have god d a m n ethics? Where is your so called professional approach?
When the JP contestant found out that, it was duly brought to the attention of The Hindu, as the others to the conspiracy could not be reached. When they were threatened with actions, then only The Hindu decided to delete the so called exit polls of Mylapore from the sample. And safely disguised under the cover "Technical Reasons". What a shame, even at this time, the corruption is going around!
Could any of the voters in Mylapore confirm this exit poll controversy?"
By
Surya, at 8:14 PM
The Hindu is the worst newspaper in the country and is probably in the league of some of the state run newspapers in China exhibiting comunist ideology.
The paper never had any ethics to start with, resorts to partisan reporting(especially on BJP) and smudge that by being subtle and politically incorrect.
The only thing I liked about the paper is their use of 1980s style of English but now even that is changing. Their recruitment of young journalists in the name of inducing youthful exuberance to their journalism gives way ti immature reporting which is evident especially in their supplements.
Their online edition is by far the worst website I have come across from India. The site looks terrible, hard to read, unberable pop-ups and of late some "video" ads that just eat away the user's bandwith. Some school children with amateur web experience and with ownership of a copy of "HTML for Dummies" can come up with better output than that.
It just goes to show how the word "enterprise" means nothing to the hindu empire. They are probably trying to save money on getting decent site up and banking on some Idiots to continue reading their third rate journalism on the current extremely inadequate online HTML garbage of a website.
One positive thing is the photographers they hire. The photos are very good and capyure some moments with elan
By
Anonymous, at 12:38 AM
I'm not a supporter of any party but the logic behind exit polls is crazy. Ablsolutely crap calculations. Here the sample size taken is 11 k for cnn ibn poll. The turnout is 65%.. Isn't this contradicting..? Where is 65% of TN and where is 11k sample size..Exit polls are a waste of time..
Anyways let's wait and watch the actual results..
Tamizh kudimagan
By
Anonymous, at 4:42 AM
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